Bahrain

and 10 others

CrisisWatch N°93, 1 May 2011

Report

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International Crisis Group

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The situation deteriorated in Sudan (Northern) as both North and South appear to be militarising Abyei ahead of the South Kordofan elections scheduled for May. Tensions triggered militia attacks in el-Faid town leaving at least seventeen dead and over 250 houses burned. President Bashir’s removal of Salah Gosh from the national security committee signalled growing divisions within the ruling party.
Download the full issue of CrisisWatch N°93 Fighting intensified in Sudan (South) between government and rebel militias where mid-month clashes saw more than 165 casualties over a seven-day period. Tensions increased as a 27-28 April meeting of political party leaders to review the draft constitution failed to reach consensus.
The five-month stand-off in Côte d’Ivoire ended as forces loyal to president-elect Alassane Ouattara arrested former president Laurent Gbagbo on 11 April. While the arrest opens up political space for Ouattara, reports of his allies carrying out reprisal attacks against the Gbagbo camp, along with the outbreak of heavy clashes among forces supporting Ouattara, illustrate the scale of the challenges ahead.
Violence sharply escalated in Syria, where over a hundred anti-government protesters were reported killed on 22 April, the worst day of bloodshed so far in the regime's violent crackdown on dissent. There are fears of further violence as the government deployed troops across the country and used tanks to lay siege to the city of Deraa where the revolts began.
In Bahrain repressive measures against pro-democracy activists continued despite the marked decline in protests following the government’s crackdown in March. Amidst a wave of arrests reports emerged that prisoners had been beaten and tortured by security forces.
There was no clear prospect for an end to fighting in Libya, which this month saw NATO bombing of government forces and installations, including an airstrike on Tripoli that reportedly killed Colonel Qadaffi's youngest son and three grandchildren. Qadaffi's calls for a ceasefire and negotiations were dismissed as a disingenuous ploy by rebels as Libyan forces continued shelling rebels and urban centres. Rebels claimed over 1,000 people have been killed in the besieged city of Misrata and the UN stated that government use of cluster munitions and targeting of medical facilities could amount to war crimes.
CrisisWatch again identifies a conflict risk alert and a conflict resolution opportunity in the coming month for Yemen. Both the government and the opposition have now, in principle, agreed to sign a power-transfer deal to get the country out of the crisis. With spoilers on both sides and youth groups rejecting the plan there is still a real risk of civil war.
A further wave of unrest swept Burkina Faso in mid-April as members of the presidential guard mutinied in Ouagadougou and looting and rioting spread to at least three other cities. Shopkeepers and students also staged violent protests. In an attempt to end the unrest, President Blaise Compaoré dismissed the government and military leaders. A subsequent police mutiny in the capital 27-28 April spread to several other cities and 34 opposition parties have called for Compaoré to step down.
Tensions escalated in Uganda where at least two were killed and dozens injured during Kampala riots on 29 April triggered by the violent arrest of opposition leader Kizza Besigye for defiance over the government ban on “walk to work” protests against surging food and fuel costs.
Violence flared along the border between Thailand and Cambodia towards the end of the month, with at least fifteen soldiers killed in clashes and tens of thousands displaced on both sides.
In Bosnia the ongoing political crisis intensified, in Belarus thirteen people were killed in a suspected terrorist attack on a Minsk subway station, and in Northern Ireland a police officer was killed in a car bomb attack by dissident republicans in Omagh at the beginni ng of the month.
CrisisWatch also highlights Sri Lanka, following the 26 April release of the report of the UN panel of experts finding "credible evidence" that violations committed during the civil war by both government forces and the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) likely cost "tens of thousands" of civilian lives and may have amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The panel called for an "international mechanism" to probe the allegations further.

Hundreds arrested in Syria sweep: activists

Posted 2 hours 32 minutes ago

Hundreds of dissidents have been arrested across Syria as dozens were killed in weekend protests, activists said.

Anti-regime activists called for fresh protests aimed at breaking the week-long siege in the Damascus suburb of Douma and the flashpoint town of Deraa, as well as in solidarity with other towns faced with deadly crackdowns.
Six civilians were killed in Deraa on Saturday, a day after massive protests over the Muslim weekend in Syria where rights groups say the civilian death toll has topped 580 since the demonstrations started on March 15.
British prime minister David Cameron denounced Syria's "disgraceful" crackdown and urged more global pressure against Damascus, although Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned against foreign military intervention.
The United States has blocked assets of president Bashar al-Assad's brother, Maher, who commands the feared Fourth Armoured Division.
Top officials and Syria's intelligence services have also had their accounts frozen.
The European Union is preparing a raft of sanctions, including an arms embargo.
"At least 356 people were arrested today across Syria, including in Deraa, Douma, Latakia and Qamishli," an activist said.
He said demonstrations took place in the central city of Homs, where protesters chanted "the people demand the fall of the regime" in the Khaldiyeh area near Nur mosque.
A protest was also held in the coastal city of Latakia and a candlelit vigil in Banias.
Troops in tanks backed by other armoured vehicles cruised Deraa streets yesterday, shooting to keep residents indoors and arresting men aged 15 and over, according to an activist.
"Since early morning, the army and security forces have been combing neighbourhoods one by one and making sweeping arrests. Hundreds have been arrested since Friday," activist Abdullah Abizad said by telephone.
In Douma, "the army has tightened the siege and has a list of 200 names of people it wants to arrest", another activist said.
A young man recounted his escape from Douma, which he did at "great risk" using back roads. "It was very difficult and very dangerous. I had to avoid all the checkpoints."
"People are afraid to leave their homes but they are beginning to feel the pinch. There are shortages of food, baby milk and other basic stuff," he said.
He said food prices have risen up to five times their usual cost.
Activists say many people in Douma and Deraa live off the land and have been relying on what they grow. They say the situation is critical but there is no famine yet.
- AFP

‘Doomsday scenario’ if Syria fails

View Photo Gallery — Tens of thousands of people are taking part in the uprising against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

By Liz Sly, Sunday, May 1, 7:59 PM

BEIRUT — The toppling of the presidents in Tunisia and Egypt precipitated a tumult of revolutionary fervor that promises to transform the Middle East, but the potential collapse of the Syrian regime could wreak havoc of a very different kind.
In Syria, the fall of President Bashar al-Assad would unleash a cataclysm of chaos, sectarian strife and extremism that spreads far beyond its borders, threatening not only the entrenched rulers already battling to hold at bay a clamor for democratic change but also the entire balance of power in the volatile region, analysts and experts say. CONTINUED HERE